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Pullback or Blastoff?


The market ended last week on a strong note.

Coming into the week, there are a few economic reports, all reporting at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The first report will be the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Retail Sales will be reported, with Jobless Claims to follow on Thursday. One thing to keep in mind is Options Expiration (OPEX) on Friday, which could cause extra volatility and premium crushing this week.

Two earning reports to watch this week are Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday and Applied Materials (AMAT) on Thursday, both reporting after hours.

After last week’s monster rip, see if the S&P 500 (/ES) pulls back. My pullback target is the daily Ichimoku Cloud top at $3,950. If /ES holds $3,950, see if it continues back toward $4,000. If /ES pulls back and breaks $3,950, my first target is $3,875. My second target is Point of Control (POC) at $3,866.

If /ES continues higher and gets through $4,000, my larger upside target continues to be the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,080.

Check out the video above to get the breakdown of my critical level on /ES and /NQ and my thoughts on my favorite setup in AAPL.

Stay Focused!

 

Bulls’ Best Chance


 

Depending on what your market proxy is, now seems like the bulls’ best chance since 2020 to take back control.

If you focus on the relationship between the Dollar (DXY) and the market, we know that strength in the dollar is bad for the market and weakness in the dollar benefits the market.

There are major signs here that the dollar is breaking trend, which is a strong indication that the path of least resistance in the short-term could be for the bulls.

In the video above, we’ll focus on the structure of the market and key factors to look out for going forward.

Stay Focused!

 

Continuation of Market Strength?


 

The market cooled off a bit on Friday following a crazy bullish move on Thursday.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is starting to dip back to the 15-minute 21 exponential moving average (EMA), but it still has a long way to go considering the 30-minute 21 EMA is below at $3880.

The question for next week is do we get a continuation in the strength of the market next week.

In the video above, we’ll review our game plan for our open positions on CF (which has been an illiquid pain lately) and OXY (which had a strong day on Friday). Get Taylor’s trade alerts and weekly live trading in the Compounding Growth Mastery. Snag a $7 trial for 30 days here.

In Sunday’s video, we’ll review the structure of the overall market and the bulls’ chance of taking back control in the short term.

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Monster Rip After CPI


The market had a monster day on Thursday after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed less than expected. Let’s see if the rally continues into Friday.

 

Coming into the week, one of my main targets to the upside was the structure above near point of control (POC) at $3,866. After breaking $3,866, the S&P 500 (/ES) continued to rally and closed around $3,965.

If /ES continues higher and gets through $4,000, my larger upside target is the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,084.

 

Check out the video above to get the breakdown of my critical level on /ES and /NQ. 

 

Stay Focused!

 

Election Day On The Way


There are two major catalysts heading into the week. Tuesday is election day; politics aside, the market is always looking at who is in power and making decisions. At 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Thursday, both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Jobless Claims will be reported.

AAPL gapped down on Monday after its announcement over the weekend that they are cutting their outlook for iPhone shipments due to China lockdowns.

After breaking structure during last week’s FOMC event, the S&P 500 (/ES) continued to reject the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA) near $3,784. Overnight on Monday, /ES broke above $3,784 to start the week.

The market is near a problematic range of targets from $3,800 to $3,820. If /ES gets through $3,820, see if /ES can head toward the structure above near point of control (POC) at $3,866. If /ES breaks $3,784, my main target below is the structure near the zone from $3,763 to $3,735. If /ES breaks $3,735, see if it can drop to last week’s low of $3,704.

With major rotation happening, the Nasdaq-100 futures (/NQ) has been hit the hardest. If /NQ can break through Friday’s high of $10,396, my first target is $11,100, and my second target is the daily 21 EMA around $11,200. If /NQ rejects $10,942 and breaks point of control at $10,800, I have two major downside targets. My first target is last week’s low of 10,656; my second target is the low of the year at $10,484.

Pay attention to the volatility index (VIX) as it approaches a major level of $25 and how that may impact the market.

Check out the video above to get the breakdown of my critical levels on /ES. I also discuss structure on VIX and review my focus list setup on AAPL with essential levels to watch.

Tune in to trade SPX, and other potential opportunities in the market with me live in the Simpler Day Trading room. Try a $7 one-month trial!

Stay Focused!

 

AAPL Outweighing the Market


 

There’s one sector holding back the market and the strongest of sectors. It all comes down to AAPL and a weak technology sector (QQQ).

The market is showing signs of progress, and charts are rebuilding on the S&P 500 and other strong sectors like energy (XLE), the financials (XLF), and healthcare (SLV). To tie a bullish move together, there needs to be signs of improvement from AAPL and the QQQ. Otherwise, the market will likely trend lower.

While GOOGL and MSFT attempt to pull the tech sector up, it’s not enough to pull the market higher with such an “ugly” AAPL chart. As nasty as AAPL looks, it is very oversold.

For now, we’ll need to anchor to the few things that act as key support, which we’ll cover again in the video above. 

Stay Focused!

 

Playing Ping Pong Between Bullish, Bearish Levels


 

The market is playing ping pong between two important levels that will determine the path of least resistance.

The market needs to hold the hourly 200 simple moving average (SMA) in order to stay afloat. Things will get ugly to the downside if SPX breaks the 200 SMA. The dynamic would shift in favor of the bulls if SPX moves above the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA).

On Friday, SPX moved back and forth between these two levels. The trading decisions we make will come down to how the market breaks down between the 200 SMA and 21 EMA.

In the video above, we’ll lay out key levels on HYG, VIX, DXY, and the overall market. Stay tuned for Sunday’s newsletter to see what the weakness in AAPL means for the market.

Stay Focused!

 

Market Vulnerable From Fed


As discussed on Monday, this week was all about the Fed (FOMC) event on Wednesday. On Friday, the last event for the week is Non-Farm Payroll.

After the FOMC event, the S&P 500 (/ES) reacted negatively to Jerome Powell’s comments on if high rates are here to stay in the long term. /ES broke one of this week’s downside targets of $3,850, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

If /ES stays under $3,800, my main target is the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA) near $3,784. See if /ES rolls over to the key zone below at $3,700. From there, my first downside target is the bottom of the zone at $3,669. My second target is at $3,639.

Don’t be afraid to miss out on upside potential while /ES is at levels that bring better short opportunities. However, if /ES gets through $3,784, my only upside target is $3,850.

The Nasdaq-100 futures (/NQ) has been weak after continuous bad tech earnings this week. As it continues to stay vulnerable, we want to keep an eye on how /NQ will impact the market.

Check out the video above to get the breakdown of my critical levels on /ES. I also discuss structure on /NQ and key levels to note.

Tune in to trade SPX, and other potential opportunities in the market with me live in the Simpler Day Trading room. Try a $7 one-month trial!

Stay Focused!

 

Will FOMC, Earnings Send Market Out Of Ranges?


Happy Halloween, everyone! Get ready for a spooky week ahead.

There are a few note-worthy earnings reports this week, all reporting after the market close. On Tuesday, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reports; Wednesday, Roku (ROKU) and Qualcomm (QCOM), followed by Coinbase (COIN) on Thursday.

Multiple economic data reports are being released this week. On Wednesday, the ADP Employment Report is set to release at 8:15 a.m. EST, followed by an FOMC announcement at 2 p.m. EST, and Jerome Powell is set to speak at 2:30 p.m. EST. At 8:30 a.m. EST, Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday, and Non-Farm Payroll will be reported on Friday.

After last week’s messy tech earnings, the S&P 500 (/ES) held structure and closed at our bigger picture trendline around $3,903. With trendlines above and below, let’s see where FOMC takes the market this week.

If /ES breaks above $3,903, my following targets are $3,936 and the zone above $3,981. If /ES breaks below the trendline, my first target is the zone below $3,875. Two major downside targets are the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,850 and the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA) near $3,785.

Remember that the market could stay range bound in this structure ahead of the FOMC event on Wednesday.

Two major compasses for the market this week are Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL).

After bad earnings last week AMZN had a large gap to the downside breaching their low of the year at $101. AMZN recovered and reversed through $101, ending Friday’s close at around $103. AMZN is a great compass for tech; see if they sell or buy to hold technology this week. With a gap from $103 to $109, see if AMZN can hold $101 and fill the gap to $109. If AMZN breaks $101, my main downside target is Friday’s close at $94.81.

Check out the video above to get the breakdown of my critical levels in GOOGL and AMZN. We also discuss zones and major levels to watch on /ES as it deals with bigger-picture structures.

Interested in my strategy? Trade live with me this week in my day-trading intensive!

Stay Focused!

 

Spooky SPX Setup


 

Happy Halloweekend!

The S&P 500 (SPX) is holding its bullish structure for now. Let’s define what factors must hold firm to maintain this bullish structure. We’ll set up an SPX put credit spread that assumes the short-term path of least resistance is to the upside.

We’re looking for more bullish trades similar to our NVDA trade taken in the Compounding Growth Mastery.

NVDA closed above the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA), printed Big 3 Buy Signals on multiple time frames, and pushed higher for a quick profit. We’re patiently waiting to open new trades on our watchlist, including CF and TSLA, until the risk:reward ratio improves.

The plan is to wait for a dip before taking new entries, specifically out-of-the-money (OTM) put credit spreads.

I’ve been dabbling in futures for the last few months, so we’ll review some of the opportunities, advantages/disadvantages, and trade ideas I have regarding trading /ES.

Stay Focused!

Join John Carter, Taylor Horton, and Raghee Horner on Twitter Spaces at 3:15pm Central next Friday, November 4th. They’ll be discussing the changes they’ve made to their trading in 2022, and how they take advantage of this extreme volatility.