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As a trader, it is important to recognize which days to take advantage of the opportunities in the market and which days to remain patient and “sit on your hands”.

My best advice is to focus on what you can control. There are a few things we can control as traders: showing up every day with a game plan, ready for either direction. Keep in mind that every day we can go higher, lower, or even nowhere.

In the video above, I break down two trading days in December, December 9th and 12th, to show when to stay patient and when to take action in the market.

Stay Focused!

 

This week, Sam Shames, VP of Options at Simpler Trading, shares his macro review on the market for the week and key levels that must hold for the bulls.

 

Story of the Week

Bulls enter the week having held key levels on weekly closes: SPY $380 and QQQ $262

These remain the must-hold levels for bulls.

There are some advancements that have occurred beyond the Friday short squeeze… Dow now has weekly buy signals + structure… bonds are attempting to make a tradable bottom… Dollar has a bull trap pattern… bottom of the barrel assets like XLC and EEM are showing bottoming patterns… AAPL and TSLA and AMZN all triggered reversal patterns on Friday (must hold the lows to stay valid).

Knowing your index levels into the next few weeks/months will be critical.

You’ll notice that Sam refers to his proprietary premium indicators, the TrendOscillator Pro (TrendOsc) and HiLo Pro. For more information on Sam’s true momentum indicators and how to apply them to your trading, visit the link here or reach out to our support staff at [email protected].

 

Game Plan

The plan for the next week is straightforward.

It is the quintessential “if this, then that” dynamic.

IF the SPY holds $385, THEN we look for a battle higher at $390.

IF the SPY holds $390, THEN we look for a battle higher at $400.

IF the SPY loses $380 on weekly close, THEN we look for a max short situation.

From here on out the bulls must continue to press the short squeeze they started on Friday… it doesn’t have to be straight up, but they have to hold key levels.

The $PCALL remains high and that can act as the fuse for a continued short squeeze… $PCALL alone is not enough, but as long as price continues to inch higher and hold pullbacks that will encourage the shorts to look for the exits.

The internals are vibing with the bull case as well with VIX and VVIX showing bearish patterns, especially VVIX with a new low.

The internal breadth readings also held key levels for the first time in a long time, so the breadth implies rallies should be relatively broad based and could be led by laggards like tech and semiconductors.

The Dollar potentially breaking down further and bonds holding also help bulls.

This is the best chance the bulls have to run for a while, know your levels and your plan on what to do above and below those key SPY prints.

Cheers,

Sam Shames

 

 

After a pop on Friday, the S&P 500 (SPX) is approaching three major levels of resistance that we’ll define in the video above.

Bigger picture, the weekly chart is still showing to short the rallies.

If the market can approach the hourly 200 simple moving average (SMA) and the hourly chart still isn’t printing a Big 3 buy signal, we’ll move to the lower time frames.

In the video above, we’ll review an area for a potential short position with a solid risk versus reward. We’ll also observe names on our focused list, including AAPL, BA, META, and more.

Trade names on Taylor’s watchlist in real-time with Taylor’s Compounding Growth Mastery program. Start a 30-day trial for $7 today.

Stay Focused!

 

 

We’re focusing on the S&P 500 this week because quite frankly, this is the only chart that matters.

The Big 3 indicator is printing red on the weekly and daily charts, representing a bearish signal. Although the market rallied all day on Friday, the hourly chart prints a grey bar, representing a neutral signal.

The market hasn’t flipped quite bullish yet, and it is rallying into heavy levels of resistance.

In the video above, we’ll review the weekly, daily, and hourly charts of SPX and where we plan to play the market higher (or lower).

Stay Focused!

It’s the last trading day of the year!

We had tax loss harvest trading on Friday morning as investors disposed of positions with large losses in an effort to reduce their tax bill.

My pick for a reversal trade was on META as the lower time frames are showing positive structure and momentum. We’ll break down that trade setup in the video below.

 

 

Please note we will not be sending a newsletter on Sunday or Monday next week due to the long holiday weekend.

Stay safe, traders, and have a happy New Year! Let’s have a great 2023 trading year together.

Stay Focused!

 

I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend! It was a short week heading into the end of the year.

Remember that the market will be closed on January 2nd, the day after New Year’s Day.

After wiping structure, the S&P 500 (/ES) retested our lower trendline at $3,805 and held. On Thursday, /ES ramped, retesting that level and rallying toward structure above at $3,875.

Even though the market is in a tight range, it is setting up for the new year.

Check out the video above for a breakdown of /ES and critical levels as we head into the new year. I also provide my favorite setup on AAPL with levels to watch.

Stay Focused!

 

We’ll do a quick recap of this week’s price action ahead of the long weekend. There is a list of “problems” we’re seeing on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts of the overall market.

The SPX monthly chart has a squeeze, trading under the 21 exponential moving average (EMA), and the first negative histogram since 2008. The MACD bars changed colors from green to grey, showing the momentum from the COVID-19 rally is gone.

If the squeeze fires short and SPX breaks the weekly 50 simple moving average (SMA), we could see some more nasty selling across the board.

There will not be a Focused Trades newsletter sent on Sunday, December 25th or Monday, December 26th due to the Christmas Holiday observed.

Happy holidays and we hope you have a safe and merry time off!

Stay Focused!

 

This week was light on market events. The S&P 500 (/ES) has been guiding lower this week with no ‘Santa Rally’ in sight.

On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, followed by the Umich Consumer Sentiment Index at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.

Keep in mind, the market is closed on Monday, December 26th for Christmas observance.

Check out the video above for a breakdown of my critical levels and structure on /ES.

Stay Focused and Happy Holidays!

 

 

This week is light on market events before next week’s Holiday.

On Wednesday, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) reports at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.

Initial and continued Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, followed by Umich Consumer Sentiment Index at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.

The S&P 500 (/ES) sold off on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) event and sits at $3,879. See if /ES pops toward the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,936. If /ES lacks momentum at the 50-day SMA, see if /ES rolls down to $3,879. 

Check out the video above for a breakdown of my focused list setup in NVDA and critical levels on /ES.