The bulls made progress this week as the market held structure on the dip.
Since Friday is option expiration (OPEX), we expected premiums to be crushed (as Chandler laid out in the Thursday newsletter) and to see wild swings.
Our focus today wasn’t on where exactly the market goes but instead on what trades we can take for December expiration.
We’ll use the Big 3 indicator to review the overall market (/ES) across multiple time frames. We’ll also review the positive MACD crosses that we’ve been taking note of recently.
Keep an eye on your inbox for Sunday’s newsletter, where we’ll compare the current structure of the market to previous months, review the weekly MACD crosses, and analyze individual sectors.
After ripping off Producer Price Index (PPI) news on Tuesday, the S&P 500 (/ES) reversed, chopped, and continued lower on Thursday.
Keep in mind we have Options Expiration (OPEX) on Friday. Don’t fall victim to the manipulation and premium crushing due to option selling. The major news this week continues to loom over the market as a missile hit Poland on Tuesday.
See if /ES continues to hold its levels, breaks the structure above, and heads toward Point of Control (POC) at $3,996. If /ES continues lower, my main downside target is the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA) around $3,880.
Check out the video above to get a breakdown of my critical levels on /ES and AAPL. I also discuss my favorite setup in GOOGL.
Coming into the week, there are a few economic reports, all reporting at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The first report will be the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Retail Sales will be reported, with Jobless Claims to follow on Thursday. One thing to keep in mind is Options Expiration (OPEX) on Friday, which could cause extra volatility and premium crushing this week.
Two earning reports to watch this week are Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday and Applied Materials (AMAT) on Thursday, both reporting after hours.
After last week’s monster rip, see if the S&P 500 (/ES) pulls back. My pullback target is the daily Ichimoku Cloud top at $3,950. If /ES holds $3,950, see if it continues back toward $4,000. If /ES pulls back and breaks $3,950, my first target is $3,875. My second target is Point of Control (POC) at $3,866.
If /ES continues higher and gets through $4,000, my larger upside target continues to be the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,080.
Check out the video above to get the breakdown of my critical level on /ES and /NQ and my thoughts on my favorite setup in AAPL.
Depending on what your market proxy is, now seems like the bulls’ best chance since 2020 to take back control.
If you focus on the relationship between the Dollar (DXY) and the market, we know that strength in the dollar is bad for the market and weakness in the dollar benefits the market.
There are major signs here that the dollar is breaking trend, which is a strong indication that the path of least resistance in the short-term could be for the bulls.
In the video above, we’ll focus on the structure of the market and key factors to look out for going forward.
The market cooled off a bit on Friday following a crazy bullish move on Thursday.
The S&P 500 (SPX) is starting to dip back to the 15-minute 21 exponential moving average (EMA), but it still has a long way to go considering the 30-minute 21 EMA is below at $3880.
The question for next week is do we get a continuation in the strength of the market next week.
In the video above, we’ll review our game plan for our open positions on CF (which has been an illiquid pain lately) and OXY (which had a strong day on Friday). Get Taylor’s trade alerts and weekly live trading in the Compounding Growth Mastery. Snag a $7 trial for 30 days here.
In Sunday’s video, we’ll review the structure of the overall market and the bulls’ chance of taking back control in the short term.
The market had a monster day on Thursday after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed less than expected. Let’s see if the rally continues into Friday.
Coming into the week, one of my main targets to the upside was the structure above near point of control (POC) at $3,866. After breaking $3,866, the S&P 500 (/ES) continued to rally and closed around $3,965.
If /ES continues higher and gets through $4,000, my larger upside target is the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,084.
Check out the video above to get the breakdown of my critical level on /ES and /NQ.
There are two major catalysts heading into the week. Tuesday is election day; politics aside, the market is always looking at who is in power and making decisions. At 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Thursday, both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Jobless Claims will be reported.
AAPL gapped down on Monday after its announcement over the weekend that they are cutting their outlook for iPhone shipments due to China lockdowns.
After breaking structure during last week’s FOMC event, the S&P 500 (/ES) continued to reject the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA) near $3,784. Overnight on Monday, /ES broke above $3,784 to start the week.
The market is near a problematic range of targets from $3,800 to $3,820. If /ES gets through $3,820, see if /ES can head toward the structure above near point of control (POC) at $3,866. If /ES breaks $3,784, my main target below is the structure near the zone from $3,763 to $3,735. If /ES breaks $3,735, see if it can drop to last week’s low of $3,704.
With major rotation happening, the Nasdaq-100 futures (/NQ) has been hit the hardest. If /NQ can break through Friday’s high of $10,396, my first target is $11,100, and my second target is the daily 21 EMA around $11,200. If /NQ rejects $10,942 and breaks point of control at $10,800, I have two major downside targets. My first target is last week’s low of 10,656; my second target is the low of the year at $10,484.
Pay attention to the volatility index (VIX) as it approaches a major level of $25 and how that may impact the market.
Check out the video above to get the breakdown of my critical levels on /ES. I also discuss structure on VIX and review my focus list setup on AAPL with essential levels to watch.
There’s one sector holding back the market and the strongest of sectors. It all comes down to AAPL and a weak technology sector (QQQ).
The market is showing signs of progress, and charts are rebuilding on the S&P 500 and other strong sectors like energy (XLE), the financials (XLF), and healthcare (SLV). To tie a bullish move together, there needs to be signs of improvement from AAPL and the QQQ. Otherwise, the market will likely trend lower.
While GOOGL and MSFT attempt to pull the tech sector up, it’s not enough to pull the market higher with such an “ugly” AAPL chart. As nasty as AAPL looks, it is very oversold.
For now, we’ll need to anchor to the few things that act as key support, which we’ll cover again in the video above.
The market is playing ping pong between two important levels that will determine the path of least resistance.
The market needs to hold the hourly 200 simple moving average (SMA) in order to stay afloat. Things will get ugly to the downside if SPX breaks the 200 SMA. The dynamic would shift in favor of the bulls if SPX moves above the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA).
On Friday, SPX moved back and forth between these two levels. The trading decisions we make will come down to how the market breaks down between the 200 SMA and 21 EMA.
In the video above, we’ll lay out key levels on HYG, VIX, DXY, and the overall market. Stay tuned for Sunday’s newsletter to see what the weakness in AAPL means for the market.
As discussed on Monday, this week was all about the Fed (FOMC) event on Wednesday. On Friday, the last event for the week is Non-Farm Payroll.
After the FOMC event, the S&P 500 (/ES) reacted negatively to Jerome Powell’s comments on if high rates are here to stay in the long term. /ES broke one of this week’s downside targets of $3,850, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
If /ES stays under $3,800, my main target is the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA) near $3,784. See if /ES rolls over to the key zone below at $3,700. From there, my first downside target is the bottom of the zone at $3,669. My second target is at $3,639.
Don’t be afraid to miss out on upside potential while /ES is at levels that bring better short opportunities. However, if /ES gets through $3,784, my only upside target is $3,850.
The Nasdaq-100 futures (/NQ) has been weak after continuous bad tech earnings this week. As it continues to stay vulnerable, we want to keep an eye on how /NQ will impact the market.
Check out the video above to get the breakdown of my critical levels on /ES. I also discuss structure on /NQ and key levels to note.
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