Month: January 2023

Structure and momentum is shaping up for the bulls. The key moving forward is if the bulls can keep up this progress on any dips.

 

 

For the first time since March 2022, the Big 3 indicator switched from bearish to neutral (red to gray) on the SPX weekly chart. This is a big shift in the favor of the bulls. It means that momentum is no longer supportive of a huge push lower on the weekly chart.

On the daily chart, the Big 3 signals also changed from bearish to neutral. The SPX is back above the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA) and 50 simple moving average (SMA). There is a daily squeeze printing with a positive histogram. All of this suggests the bears are losing control on the daily chart as well.

The SPX hourly chart continues to print the Big 3 buy signal, as the market continues to grind higher.

In the video above, we’ll review the progress the bulls have made, define which spots we’ll look to take new trades, and analyze the U.S. Dollar (DXY).

Stay Focused!

 

 

As a trader, it is important to recognize which days to take advantage of the opportunities in the market and which days to remain patient and “sit on your hands”.

My best advice is to focus on what you can control. There are a few things we can control as traders: showing up every day with a game plan, ready for either direction. Keep in mind that every day we can go higher, lower, or even nowhere.

In the video above, I break down two trading days in December, December 9th and 12th, to show when to stay patient and when to take action in the market.

Stay Focused!

 

This week, Sam Shames, VP of Options at Simpler Trading, shares his macro review on the market for the week and key levels that must hold for the bulls.

 

Story of the Week

Bulls enter the week having held key levels on weekly closes: SPY $380 and QQQ $262

These remain the must-hold levels for bulls.

There are some advancements that have occurred beyond the Friday short squeeze… Dow now has weekly buy signals + structure… bonds are attempting to make a tradable bottom… Dollar has a bull trap pattern… bottom of the barrel assets like XLC and EEM are showing bottoming patterns… AAPL and TSLA and AMZN all triggered reversal patterns on Friday (must hold the lows to stay valid).

Knowing your index levels into the next few weeks/months will be critical.

You’ll notice that Sam refers to his proprietary premium indicators, the TrendOscillator Pro (TrendOsc) and HiLo Pro. For more information on Sam’s true momentum indicators and how to apply them to your trading, visit the link here or reach out to our support staff at [email protected].

 

Game Plan

The plan for the next week is straightforward.

It is the quintessential “if this, then that” dynamic.

IF the SPY holds $385, THEN we look for a battle higher at $390.

IF the SPY holds $390, THEN we look for a battle higher at $400.

IF the SPY loses $380 on weekly close, THEN we look for a max short situation.

From here on out the bulls must continue to press the short squeeze they started on Friday… it doesn’t have to be straight up, but they have to hold key levels.

The $PCALL remains high and that can act as the fuse for a continued short squeeze… $PCALL alone is not enough, but as long as price continues to inch higher and hold pullbacks that will encourage the shorts to look for the exits.

The internals are vibing with the bull case as well with VIX and VVIX showing bearish patterns, especially VVIX with a new low.

The internal breadth readings also held key levels for the first time in a long time, so the breadth implies rallies should be relatively broad based and could be led by laggards like tech and semiconductors.

The Dollar potentially breaking down further and bonds holding also help bulls.

This is the best chance the bulls have to run for a while, know your levels and your plan on what to do above and below those key SPY prints.

Cheers,

Sam Shames

 

 

After a pop on Friday, the S&P 500 (SPX) is approaching three major levels of resistance that we’ll define in the video above.

Bigger picture, the weekly chart is still showing to short the rallies.

If the market can approach the hourly 200 simple moving average (SMA) and the hourly chart still isn’t printing a Big 3 buy signal, we’ll move to the lower time frames.

In the video above, we’ll review an area for a potential short position with a solid risk versus reward. We’ll also observe names on our focused list, including AAPL, BA, META, and more.

Trade names on Taylor’s watchlist in real-time with Taylor’s Compounding Growth Mastery program. Start a 30-day trial for $7 today.

Stay Focused!

 

 

We’re focusing on the S&P 500 this week because quite frankly, this is the only chart that matters.

The Big 3 indicator is printing red on the weekly and daily charts, representing a bearish signal. Although the market rallied all day on Friday, the hourly chart prints a grey bar, representing a neutral signal.

The market hasn’t flipped quite bullish yet, and it is rallying into heavy levels of resistance.

In the video above, we’ll review the weekly, daily, and hourly charts of SPX and where we plan to play the market higher (or lower).

Stay Focused!