Month: December 2022

It’s the last trading day of the year!

We had tax loss harvest trading on Friday morning as investors disposed of positions with large losses in an effort to reduce their tax bill.

My pick for a reversal trade was on META as the lower time frames are showing positive structure and momentum. We’ll break down that trade setup in the video below.

 

 

Please note we will not be sending a newsletter on Sunday or Monday next week due to the long holiday weekend.

Stay safe, traders, and have a happy New Year! Let’s have a great 2023 trading year together.

Stay Focused!

 

I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend! It was a short week heading into the end of the year.

Remember that the market will be closed on January 2nd, the day after New Year’s Day.

After wiping structure, the S&P 500 (/ES) retested our lower trendline at $3,805 and held. On Thursday, /ES ramped, retesting that level and rallying toward structure above at $3,875.

Even though the market is in a tight range, it is setting up for the new year.

Check out the video above for a breakdown of /ES and critical levels as we head into the new year. I also provide my favorite setup on AAPL with levels to watch.

Stay Focused!

 

We’ll do a quick recap of this week’s price action ahead of the long weekend. There is a list of “problems” we’re seeing on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts of the overall market.

The SPX monthly chart has a squeeze, trading under the 21 exponential moving average (EMA), and the first negative histogram since 2008. The MACD bars changed colors from green to grey, showing the momentum from the COVID-19 rally is gone.

If the squeeze fires short and SPX breaks the weekly 50 simple moving average (SMA), we could see some more nasty selling across the board.

There will not be a Focused Trades newsletter sent on Sunday, December 25th or Monday, December 26th due to the Christmas Holiday observed.

Happy holidays and we hope you have a safe and merry time off!

Stay Focused!

 

This week was light on market events. The S&P 500 (/ES) has been guiding lower this week with no ‘Santa Rally’ in sight.

On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, followed by the Umich Consumer Sentiment Index at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.

Keep in mind, the market is closed on Monday, December 26th for Christmas observance.

Check out the video above for a breakdown of my critical levels and structure on /ES.

Stay Focused and Happy Holidays!

 

 

This week is light on market events before next week’s Holiday.

On Wednesday, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) reports at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.

Initial and continued Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, followed by Umich Consumer Sentiment Index at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.

The S&P 500 (/ES) sold off on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) event and sits at $3,879. See if /ES pops toward the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,936. If /ES lacks momentum at the 50-day SMA, see if /ES rolls down to $3,879. 

Check out the video above for a breakdown of my focused list setup in NVDA and critical levels on /ES.

 

Hey traders!

This week I’m providing my chart links, indicator breakdowns, favorite patterns to trade, and more.

I’ve had many new Focused Trades members join the newsletter this year! For those of you that have been a part of the Focused Trades family for a while now, thank you for your dedication and support throughout the years.

I want to provide an easy-to-reference sheet that answers my most frequently asked questions.

Indicators & Charts

Free Indicators:

• Flexible Grid: http://tos.mx/8WHb2F8 
• Moving averages: 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA
• Stacked EMA label: http://tos.mx/jK7tLEr 
• Stacked EMA’s: 5EMA, 8EMA, 21EMA, 34EMA
• TTM Squeeze
• Keltner Channels: 1 and 2 average true ranges (ATR)

• MACD: 

• MA Cross Over Colored Bars: http://tos.mx/T8AHjxj 
• MACD Bars: http://tos.mx/BjDLI45 
  • (note: remove any other indicator that colors the bars in order for this to work)

Premium Indicators:

• Big 3 Squeeze Masterclass – Includes the Big 3 Squeeze, Big 3 Buy and Sell Signals, Strategy Classes, and Compounding Growth Mastery Access
• Big 3 Squeeze 

 

Other Helpful Links:

Trading Setup: Big 3 Combo

The New Big 3 Squeeze + Setups

The Big 3 Squeeze Spy Scoreboard + Scans

Slow, Steady Wins the Race

Trade Alerts Explained

Postion Sizing and Risk Management

Social Media Links

• Taylor’s Twitter
• Focused Trades Instagram
• Focused Trades Youtube

Other Resources:

Charting Options: Getting the Options ‘Name’ to Put on a Chart: Go to the options chain in ToS – right-click on the option – select copy – paste on the chart as the ticker

Additional Watchlist Resources:

• https://intercom.help/simpler-trading/en/articles/3186510-watchlist-squeeze-watchlist-column-code-and-shared-links 
• https://www.simplertrading.com/learning-center/create-custom-watchlist/ 

How to Open a Share Chart Link

Taylor’s Deep Dive into the Squeeze Pro

How to Trade the TTM Squeeze

Great Article on the Squeeze Pro

Simpler Scanner

Average True Range Setup

ETF Holdings

Determine Which Sector a Stock is In

TOS Squeeze Scanner

Stay Focused!

Taylor Horton

 

There are major technical changes to the market we need to review before next week. Since Taylor is on the road making his trip back from Austin, TX, our VP of Options, Sam Shames, is covering the Friday video this week.

Sam reviews the SPY as there’s a dangerous setup that has developed. We’ll walk through the weekly chart of SPY and the “last line in the sand” at the 50 simple moving average (SMA). Could we see a similar pattern where the market sells off after touching the 50 SMA?

Sam compares this pattern on the weekly chart to the smaller time frame charts to observe the path of least resistance on SPY. He’ll tie it together by taking a look at XLY and AAPL, representing technology names.

You’ll notice that Sam refers to his proprietary premium indicators, the TrendOscillator Pro (TrendOsc) and HiLo Pro. For more information on Sam’s true momentum indicators and how to apply them to your trading, visit the link here or reach out to our support staff at [email protected].

Cheers,

Sam

As discussed in Monday’s newsletter, there were many important economic reports this week.

On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report caused a large pop to significant levels. This triggered massive selling leading into the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.

After the FOMC announcement, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced a raise in interest rates of 50 basis points (bps), to 4.50%. The market reacted negatively to the news and has sold off since.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is the last report this week, released at 9:45 a.m. Eastern on Friday.

Since the majority of reports have been released, our primary focus is the other events impacting the market: S&P Rebalancing, Triple Witching, and SPX roll.

The S&P 500 (/ES) broke the structure at $3,950. If the market stays under Point of Control (POC) at $3,938, see if /ES flushes down to our trendline below at $3,912.

Check out the video above to get a breakdown of my critical levels and possible scenarios on /ES as it heads towards major ranges.

Stay Focused!