Month: September 2022

We have a week stacked with catalysts. Two major events to keep in mind are SPX Rebalancing and Triple Witching on Friday. 

There are multiple reports being released this week, all at 8:30a.m. Eastern. The reports were focused on are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) report on Wednesday, and the Initial Jobless claims on Thursday.

The S&P 500 (/ES) bounced at its support structure at $3,900 and rallied. See if /ES pulls back to $4,081 and pops toward the top of the zone at $4,101. If /ES breaks $4,101 my next target is the next zone at $4,153.

With /ES gapping into Monday’s session, it could fill the gap to the downside toward $4,074. If /ES fills the gap at $4,074 and doesn’t hold $4,059, my first target is $4,042, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). My second target is at $4,013.

The first setup on our focus list is SHOP. After announcing news of executive changes, it reversed through its downside structure at $31 and rallied toward $35, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). See if SHOP pulls back toward the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA) at $33 and holds. If SHOP pops and breaks through $35, my next target is $37.

The next setup I’m focusing on is NVDA. NVDA ended Friday at the $143 gap fill. See if it pulls back to the low of year at $140 and bounces toward $143. If NVDA breaks $143, see if it pushes through $147 and finishes the gap fill at $149. 

Join me live in the Simpler Day Trading room and try a one-week trial. Tune in to trade these and even more of my setups, as well as look for more potential opportunities in the market.

Stay Focused!

The market finished the week with a rally on Friday. Now the question is… bulls or bears? In the video above, we’ll create a scorecard that outlines the bigger picture structure we’re seeing and what this means going forward.

The bulls took charge last week, and the lower timeframes made serious improvements. The SPX closed above the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA) on Friday, and the hourly chart traded at 3+ average true ranges (ATR) above the mean.

As for the bears, DXY has a daily Big 3 buy signal and is holding support at the daily 21 EMA. If DXY starts moving toward the highs near 109 and 110, there’s a strong chance that this may be the end of the rally for the market. If instead DXY drops toward the 50 simple moving average (SMA), there’s an opportunity for the market to keep trading higher.

While we have seen a 3-day rally in HYG, it has a bearish structure trading below the daily 50 SMA and printing daily Big 3 sell signals.

These rallies can be tough to sit through, but if the structure doesn’t change, it’s just a shortable bounce. Take SMH for example. We’re seeing a negative moving average crossover and four daily Big 3 sell signals. At first glance, it looks like SMH is making a big move higher but it’s just a short squeeze, for now.

In the video above, we’ll rank our “Bulls vs. Bears” scorecard for the week, analyze the different sectors, and review other names on our focus list including our new position on ENPH.

Stay Focused!

We had a nice pop in the market on Friday with signs that the lower timeframes are overbought.

We’ll review our open SPX 4100/4125 call credit spread for October expiration and our game plan moving forward in the Compounding Growth Mastery.

The S&P 500 (SPX) has a 5-min Big 3 buy signal with the hourly 21 exponential moving average (EMA) above the 50 simple moving average (SMA), a bullish moving average crossover. From the ground up, the lower time frames have improved. Keep in mind, though, this is all taking place where the market could get rejected and roll over.

When the market is oversold, we see fast and furious short squeezes. Things have improved so quickly that these lower timeframes are slightly overbought. The SPX is approaching resistance as it is trading at 3+ average true range (ATR) above the hourly 21 EMA.

Next week, we’ll see if this was just a rally to the daily 21 EMA or if there’s more upside momentum left in the tank.

Let’s see if the lower timeframes flush and hold support, letting the bulls take the market higher. If instead we see a flush and the lower timeframes further break down, see if the bears bring the market back toward the lows.

In the video above, we’ll also review the QQQ (Nasdaq) as there are two daily Big 3 sell signals printing with a negative moving average crossover.

Keep an eye on your inbox for the Sunday newsletter where we’ll put together a scorecard of the big picture for next week along with review our newest trade on ENPH.

Stay Focused!

With one more trading day ahead this short week, let’s make it a good one.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell held a conference with little news to affect the S&P 500 (/ES).  Keep in mind last week’s negative news of Russia’s Nord Stream Oil production cut, although there hasn’t been much development.

After making its way toward structure at $3,900, /ES stayed above $3,980 and hit the top of the zone at $4,013. With major levels ahead, see if /ES can continue to stay above $3,980. 

If /ES stays above $3,980 my first target is the top of the zone at $4,013, and my second target is $4,023, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). This would lead /ES to the bigger picture structure above. Let’s see where the market guides us.

With technology lagging behind, see if the Nasdaq (/NQ) continues to hold the Point of Control (POC) at $12,007. 

My favorite focus list setup this week has been NVDA. See if it continues to head toward the low of the year at $140 and fails toward $134. If it can get through $140, NVDA has the gap fill above from $143 to $149. 

The next setup I’m focusing on is SHOP. With SHOP announcing news of executive changes, it broke above structure at $31. See how this affects the stock this upcoming week. If it continues to hold $31, see if it heads toward $33, the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA). 

Join me live in the Simpler Day Trading room and try a one-week trial. Tune in to trade these and even more of my setups, as well as look for more potential opportunities in the market.

Stay Focused!

Following our trading guidelines, we’ll walk through two recent trades from the Compounding Growth Mastery, our closed UNG trade and a trade we opened in the S&P 500 (SPX) Friday morning.

As for the UNG trade, we got long at the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA). Our profit target was a move up to 2+ average true ranges (ATR). We knew that we wanted to cut the trade loose once UNG traded below the daily 21 EMA. These are the types of factors we must take into consideration BEFORE entering any setup.

The reason for taking this trade was we had:

• Support above the daily 21 EMA
• Lower time frame buy signals (Big 3 Indicator)
• Bullish 4-hour squeeze

This is my go-to trade setup.

After the flush Friday morning, the Big 3 Buy signals went away, UNG was hit, and we exited the trade for a loss. Maybe you’ve thought to yourself, “What if it bounces back or what if I’m just getting shaken out?”

This is the discipline we must have as traders. That is why having a trading plan is vital for success. If you’ve felt like you’ve been chasing the market and experiencing FOMO, bookmark this video as we all need reminders daily to stick to the checklist and exit when our rules are broken.

In the video above, we’ll break down the UNG and SPX trades and review what would happen if I hadn’t excited the trade once my rules were broken.

Stay Focused!

This morning we got short the S&P 500 (SPX) with an October monthly expiration 4100 call credit spread. We also took a few small losses on OXY and UNG in the Compounding Growth Mastery this week, which we’ll tie into our topic this week on creating a trading plan.

Trading is much easier when you’re making your business decisions (what stocks to trade, what setup to trade, where to take entries/exits, etc.) outside of market hours. We want to look at things with clarity before the market opens, so we can map things out without the emotion of the market.

For example, I put together my game plan on the SPX trade on Thursday night.

In the video above, we’ll review my pre-flight checklist for taking A+ setups and nothing but A+ setups. We’ll review how to develop a game plan for your trading that you can customize to fit your best setups.

Keep an eye on your inbox on Sunday as we’ll cover recent trades in UNG and SPX, as well as apply the trading plan to other setups.

Want to trade my A+ setups together? Join the Compounding Growth Mastery where I send real-time trade alerts, deliver daily market updates, and host live trading sessions. Start out with a 30-day trial and see what it’s all about!

Stay Focused!

Friday will be the biggest day of the week with Non-Farm Payroll at 8:30 a.m. Central. We also have a long weekend ahead with the market closed on Monday for Labor Day.

The S&P 500 (/ES) reached its bigger picture structure this week near the $3,900 trendline, so we’ll continue to observe that level. We’re looking for a potential pop on Friday into the Job Report. 

See if /ES heads toward $3,955 and rolls back down to $3,930.

 If /ES continues to drop, my next target is $3,900. If /ES holds $3,930 and pops higher, my first target will be $3,955. My second target is $3,978.

Continue to focus on the Nasdaq (/NQ), and see if it leads the way for the market. /NQ could break $12,207 and head toward its above structure at $12,326. If /NQ rejects $12,207, my first  target is $12,087. My second target is $11,978.

With news from Thursday morning causing a volatile day, NVDA is still my main setup. It could bounce back and fill the gap fill above from $143 to $147 or it could head back to $140 and reject back down towards $134.

Trade my top setup in NVDA and get access to even more of my setups live with me in the Simpler Day Trading room this week. 

Stay Focused!