Month: July 2022

The main event this week is Options Expiration (OPEX) happening on Friday at the close.

Into the events of this week’s liquidity, the S&P 500 (/ES) got back to structure and created a double top. The /ES then dropped to the top of the zone at $3,720 and popped back to the low of the year at $3,807. 

On the S&P 500 (/ES), we’re focusing on two potential outcomes. The first option is it fails at $3,807 and drops to last month’s Point of Control (POC) at $3,774. The other option is /ES could break through $3,807 to the current POC at $3,828 and hit the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA) at $3,853.

We are observing the structure on the Nasdaq (/NQ) to see if it breaks through it at $11,804. The next target is the daily 21 EMA at $11,860. If the /NQ breaks through, it could reach the Consumer Price Index (CPI) levels at $11,978.

In the video above, we’ll break down how the major events this week impacted the market, define key zones, and observe the structure of the /ES. We’ll also review our focused list setups on NVDA, SHOP, and AMD.

Stay Focused!

 

 

There are a few catalysts heading into the short week.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes out on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, followed by the Options Expiration (OPEX) on Friday at the close.

Pay attention to TSMC earnings on Thursday morning to watch the semiconductor sector for potential setups. On Friday, GOOGL will have its 20 to 1 stock split that will take effect on Monday.

The S&P 500 (/ES) dipped through its support structure last week and rallied to where it previously failed at $3,900. This is where we want to look for a potential double top. 

With OPEX this week, we want to focus on the /ES Point of Control (POC) below $3,828 and the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA) at $3,875. If /ES heads toward $3,828 (POC) and pops, we want to see a rip out of the structure to $3,966. If /ES breaks $3,828 (POC), our next target is $3,741.

Similar to /ES, the Nasdaq (/NQ) could have a double top and reach $11,804 (POC). Look for /NQ to drop to its structure at $11,604. If /NQ pops, it needs to get through $12,207 to hit our next target, the zone at $12,609.

Here is our focused list:

NVDA — We want to continue to look to short its structure at $152 to our next target of $146. Then look for NVDA to fill the previous gap at $149. If NVDA holds $152 and breaks through, look for a push toward $168. 

SHOP — If SHOP drops this week and nears $29, be mindful of a pop toward our key zone at $34, the daily 21 EMA. If SHOP doesn’t move lower, look for a pop toward $34 at the daily mean and short at $30.

I’ll be live in the Simpler Day Trading room from Monday to Friday this week to cover the market. Tune in to trade these setups with me live and look for more potential opportunities in the market.

Stay Focused!

 

 

 

Last week, the bulls battled it out with the bears and made progress.

The bulls pushed the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ) above their daily means, the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA).

While we’re still in a down-trending market, the question becomes if the bulls continue this progress.

This week, we’re looking for bullish opportunities that can be kept short-lived. Our focus will be looking for setups with lower time frame squeezes and Big 3 buy signals while trading above their daily 21 EMA.

In the video above, we’ll review how to apply the Big 3 buy signal to our trading this week and discuss setups that “fit the bill” of our checklist, like ZM and TSLA.

Stay Focused!

 

Bulls Making Progress

Happy Friday, traders! The bulls made decent progress this week. Both the SPY and QQQ traded above their daily 21 exponential moving averages (EMAs). 

The big question for next week is whether or not the bulls can keep the progress they’ve made and continue to grind the markets higher.

The market isn’t suddenly bullish just because the indices are above their daily mean. However, it is a step in the right direction should July see the markets rallying higher.

If the bulls have control over the next few weeks, we’ll focus on opportunities in our favorite setup: squeezes with the Big 3 buy signals.

 

Squeeze & Big 3 Buy Signals

The power of the squeeze is it can lead to the “release of energy” needed to trigger an explosive move—first compression, then expansion. The Big 3 signals help us determine which direction the squeeze is more likely to fire.

I’ll review my Big 3 buy and sell signals more in-depth in my free webinar on Tuesday, July 12th at 7:00 p.m. Central. Register for free at the link here.

This week, we ran our scans daily, looking for these setups. We were able to find opportunities using this criterion. One of the better examples from the week was the 30-minute squeeze in Zoom (ZM), which we took profits on Friday morning. This short-lived trade was good for a 50% return on our calls.

 

 

For these lower time frame trades, we’re looking for stocks trading above their daily 21 EMA with squeezes and Big 3 buy signals on the lower time frames. ZM had the “squeeze and signal” combo on the 30-minute and 60-minute time frames. 

Remember, these squeezes are the moment in time when a stock is gearing up for a move. The Big 3 buy signals tell us the odds favor the squeezes firing to the upside. 

 

Short-Lived Bullish Opportunities

As you are building your bullish watchlist this weekend, focus on finding stocks that fit this criterion. A stock above the daily 21 EMA with lower time frame squeezes can offer the short-lived bullish opportunities we’re looking for in this market. For now, the days of taking swing trades based on daily charts is in the past. We’re forced to focus on these lower time frames to uncover the opportunity. 

Keep an eye on your inbox for this Sunday’s watchlist video, where we’ll cover a handful of setups similar to the one we traded in ZM this week. 

Stay Focused!

 

We are ending the week with a big catalyst, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

We started the short week with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The S&P 500 (/ES) created a new low and ran back toward the 21 exponential moving average (EMA) on the Fed event. On Thursday, the /ES had a cover pop leading us to our zone at $3,900.

The next few days, the market will have to work around the trendline at $3,930 and $3,950 and make a decision.

We’ll continue to look for the /ES to potentially double top and fail at $3,930. A potential rollover could lead us to our first target, the daily 21 EMA, and the second target, Point of Control (POC) at $3,828. 

We could also see a continued cover pop breaking structure above at $3,930 and head toward $3,976.

In the video above, we’ll break down how the FOMC impacted the market, define key zones in the Volatility Index (VIX), break down the structure of the S&P 500 (/ES) and technology index (/NQ), and review our focused list setups on NVDA and GOOGL.

Stay Focused!

 

 

Heading into the short week we have a few catalysts.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) event is happening on Wednesday at 2:00 pm Eastern, followed by a Nonfarm Payroll Job report on Friday. 

Be mindful of the FED with the market being under the current structure.

/ES ended last week at around $3825, If we migrate towards $3855 and struggle we could reset and head back down to June’s Point of Control (POC) at $3774. Overall bearish so be patient being bullish, if the market does rally look for it to reach its previous structure around $3900 to $3930.

On Friday /NQ ended the week on $11605 (POC) look for it to potentially retest liquidity at $11804 or if we dont pop we could fail and roll over to the low of the year at $11068.

Here is our focused list:

/NVDA — Broke below our low of the year $152.2 and is under structure, with it trending down look out for a reset at $152 we want to get ready to short to the gap fill of $142 to 140, if we break the gap look out for our major target of $134.

/AMD — Under major levels and heading towards low of year $72.5, looking for potential pop playing it long towards $79 and potentially reload some shorts to head back down towards $72.5, if it breaks $72.5 look for $67.

I’ll be live in the Simpler Day Trading room from Monday to Friday this week to cover the market. Tune in to trade these setups with me live and look for more potential opportunities in the market.

Stay Focused!

 

 

Happy Fourth of July, traders! 

The S&P 500 (/ES) is in a downtrend, and the weekly squeeze is firing short. The /ES is trading at -2 average true ranges (ATR) below the 21 exponential moving average (EMA).

Now the question is… will the market roll over and create a new low? 

The other option is a reversion to the daily mean, or the 21 EMA. Think of this big rally as similar to the pullbacks we see in bearish trends. As swing traders, rallies to the weekly 21 EMA are our best opportunities to get short in bearish markets.

In the video above, we’ll review the structure of the major indexes and provide other tickers to observe to get more clarity on the market.

Stay Focused!