Month: November 2021

The market ended last Friday with high volatility despite the holiday weekend. The S&P 500 (ES) dropped from its high at $4,740.50 to the low of the day due to the new COVID-19 variant that temporarily spooked the market. 

We don’t expect the day-to-day shocks to end anytime soon as the market will continue to react to certain COVID-19 news. If the market gets conditioned to the news, we might not see as much action as we did on Friday but won’t be surprised by future reactions. 

If negative news is released, we could very likely see fear trickle into the market. We’ll keep reacting to the looming catalyst day-by-day.

One thing we can do is rely on the technicals. On Monday the ES had a relatively green day, engulfing almost half of Friday’s drop. We are still in a volatile market, so it’s important we have compasses that we can follow including the 50 simple moving average (SMA), daily mean, and daily squeeze.

Here is our focused list:

GOOGL — Kissed the trendline and 50 simple moving average (SMA) on Friday for the third time since October. Be patient, and if GOOGL can’t break through the daily mean at $2,850 it could drop below the trendline to $2,800. GOOGL currently sits in a daily squeeze and if it can break through the daily mean, the squeeze could fire to the upside through point of control (POC) at $2,909 to the $2,980 range. 

MRNA — Gapped above and held the daily Ichimoku Cloud on Monday. MRNA is approaching the flat top line of resistance on the Ichimoku Cloud at $375. If it rips through the daily Ichimoku Cloud at $380, MRNA could reach $400. It could also get rejected and pull back for a quick short opportunity to POC at $343 or the 50 SMA at $322. 

NVDA — Sitting at the highs in a 4-hour squeeze. While NVDA is extended, if it can squeeze and break through its all-time high (ATH) at $346 we could see it rally higher. We could see a dip buy opportunity if NVDA drops to $330 or to POC at $323. 

SHOP — Currently trading at the daily mean. As long as it holds $1,540 there is a potential dip buy opportunity to $1,600 and $1,660 this week, and potentially farther through $1,700. Look to buy SHOP low and sell it high. 

Stay Focused!

The market saw no dull moments during this shorter week as we rolled into the end of the month. The market experienced selling pressure on Friday due to the new coronavirus variant, but we’re maintaining our focus on the charts.

The Nasdaq (NQ) was down 2% on Friday, but the weekly structure held strong, accompanied by a new daily squeeze. If the NQ can find support, this daily squeeze could fire the NQ to the upside, even if it retreats to the 21 exponential moving average (EMA). 

The S&P 500 dropped about 2.5% on Friday with potential for a buying opportunity if it falls to the 21 EMA around $4,500. 

The Volatility index (VIX) boosted almost 50% on Friday, and if it continues higher we can expect more selling pressure. We likely won’t see a Santa rally unless the VIX moves lower. 

Focus on structure, run your scans, and build a watchlist based off setups with the better trends. Our plan is to remain patient with our trade ideas and execute once the VIX dies down.

Watch the video above for our plan moving forward on setups like AMZN, AAPL, and GOOGL.

Stay Focused!

During this short holiday week we saw the indexes revert back to their daily 21 exponential moving averages (EMA) for the first time since early October. As goes the market goes the stocks, so we saw some selling pressure in FANG stocks this week as well. However we believe there’s a lot to love about this dip… 

In terms of structure nothing has changed about the indexes, AMZN, AAPL, TSLA, and other names we’ve been focusing on. AAPL continues to hold up well, while AMZN, TSLA, and GOOGL have all reverted to their mean. We think this opens the door for some nice entries in long positions.

So long as this dip in the market doesn’t begin to break structure of major timeframes, we continue to think the weekly squeezes in the QQQ, AMZN, AAPL, and GOOGL are poised to fire long into the end of the year.

One chart to keep a close eye on here is the volatility index, the VIX. Per usual, VIX is spiking as the indexes are reverting back to the mean. Before we can have confidence that the market is ready to find support and turn back toward the highs, we’ll need to see VIX die down and start fading back towards its own 21 EMA.

In Sunday’s watchlist video we’ll dive in and take a look at this week’s action, along with the top setups on our watchlist and an updated look at our current positions.

Stay Focused!

The market showed volatility on Monday at the start of the shortened holiday week. The market will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will open for a half day and close at 12:00 pm Central on Friday. 

The holiday week could bring more volatility with big money causing increased price action. On the other hand, the market could see an “early holiday”, where we can expect chop to finish the week. 

Keep in mind that premiums could get aggressive. Size down, have fun, and understand the type of conditions we are dealing with. 

The market had a decent selling day on Monday, as the S&P 500 (ES) lingered near its high at $4,740.50. After last week’s options expiration, volume picked up and started a textbook reversal.

We’re working with a lot of the same key levels as last week now that the ES dumped to our key zone through point of control (POC) at $4,695 to the lower POC at $4,673 on Monday. 

While we’re mostly focused on trading the overall market this week, let’s review some key setups that could lead to strong opportunities. 

Here is our focused list:

GOOGL — The trendline aligned with the daily mean at $2,928 on Monday. If the market does move higher, we could see a dip buy opportunity at the mean. If GOOGL breaks its trendline, it could drop to POC at $2,909 to $2,891. If it starts to grind higher, we could see a move to POC at $2,969 and potentially to $3,000. Be patient and see if technology continues its weakness.

NVDA — Pay close attention to NVDA because it has been a strong name this year. It had another gap on Monday that could lead to a potential dip buy opportunity. If the market becomes more bearish, we could see a move to the range from $313 to $305. With POC at $304, this further confirms a gap fill. If it goes further, NVDA could revert to the mean at $287.

Stay Focused!

We want to be prepared in case there is action to take next week, while keeping in mind it is a shorter week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. We’re still focusing on the same major spots we’ve been discussing, specifically on technology. In this video, we’ll take a deeper dive into actionable setups we’re watching, like AMZN with its multiple squeezes on the monthly, weekly, 3-day, and daily charts. 

Watch the video above to see where we’re planning to build positions on tickers like GOOGL, APPL, and NFLX. We hope you have a great holiday weekend, and we’ll see you on Monday.

Stay Focused!